After the Spring Festival, the total index was still sluggish in China-Shengze, and the index was rebounded nearly a week. Meanwhile, the textile market was also not good after the Spring Festival. Although the raw material products of chemical fiber rose slightly, it could not continue this trend, and then it began to dip due to the weakness sales. Fabric sales not only were unable to operate, but also the recovery of weaving operating rate was slow. So what were the reasons hindered the textile market after the Spring Festival? The author thought that the main reasons included the following three points:
Firstly, the external economic environment became bad and export declined
Recently, the international economic environment was not good, especially the spread of Europe and America debt crisis, hindered the development pace of the international economy. At the same time, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate was affected by the textile & garment enterprises, which they were hesitated to book orders, in order to avoid the losses due to the fluctuations of exchange rate. According to the date of General Administration of Customs, the total exports of China’s textiles and garments reached 21.519 billions in January, fell 0.42% year-on year, this was the first time it appeared the negative growth after the financial crisis. Furthermore, the textile exports dropped 6.8% year-on-year, garments and accessories increased 3.51%, and shoes exports declined 1.3%.
Secondly, the product profit was low and the production enthusiasm was not high
On a whole, the raw material costs were on the high side, such as cotton yarn, chemical fiber raw materials which the price continued to increase, however, the downstream manufacturers could not undertake the rising pressure of raw material costs. Most manufacturers expected that the textile market improved in the later, at present, new orders were little in some manufacturers, and they also were unwilling to book orders, the wait-and-see mood was heavy, and the production enthusiasm was not high.
Thirdly, the inventory pressure more increased
At present, the biggest problem was order issues in the terminal market, and the textile enterprise generally reflected the order was little, made the inventory pressure increased. According to investigation and statistics, now the polyester plant which the whole inventory of POY was around 15-18 days, FDY was above 20 days, and DTY was about a month and a half. In addition, the inventory of gray fabric was between 20 and 30 days in the weaving factory and the higher was even more than two months. Higher inventory pressure, leading to the production enthusiasm was not high in the downstream factory, and they were cautious to purchase the textile raw materials.
Forecast: although the development of textile industry still faced uncertain factors, such as the foreign economic recovery was slow, the trade friction intensified and the appreciation of the RMB etc. while from the China-Shengze index, the peak season was gradually coming in the first half of this year, the demands of terminal market was rebounded steadily. Moreover, from February 24th, 2012, the central Bank would cut RMB deposit reserve rate 0.5%, indicated that liquidity of bank system would be released, the nervous pressure of current market funds would also be eased, and all of these would promote the sales of fabric market in the first half of this year.
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