|
2011-9-30
Bulk commodity market will not just simply repeat the price slump in 2008, the crisis range and rhyme will change by large. Since the global economy crisis in 2007, caused by subprime mortgage crisis, now it has encountered another economic crisis period, which is an even more important period. The crisis nature has changed from economic to the national sovereignty debt crisis. The economic slump in 2008 would probably be replayed, and which may even worse. But it may not come in the short period.
See from macro background. The so called second recession of the global economy may not be accurate for since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, European economy paces up and down at a low level. The fluctuation is not that notable, comparing with what happened in the stock market. For the economic environment changes little, without rebound, then not to matter to kick the bottom.
What can be compared to is the economic environment. The principal contradiction for the present market is the uncertainty brought by the European debt crisis, which is quite similar with what happened before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. But in my opinion, the major detonation cord should be the European debt, but not the “Powder Barrel”.
In 2008, the cause of economic crisis, which seems the result brought by individual financial problems, is for the various derivative products and the ultra high lending lever of the financial institutions. As for these factors, which had already been revealed in the economic crisis three years ago. For now the crisis cause has changed into the national sovereignty credit, and for its relieving difficulty, its self recover ability, and the market influence differentiates, the economic crisis this time will be different from that of 2008, which may has faster diffusion rhyme, wider stricken scope, deeper extent and more repeat.
In addition, the crisis should also be compared with the European debt crisis in 2008 and 2009, besides the horizontal comparison with that of 2008.
See from a middle or long term, take the high national loan enterprises of Greece for example, the national tax efficiency is low, reducing fiscal deficit is beset with difficulties, debt burden has becomes big that beyond sustainable condition, but European countries will not always bury the debt, without a cap. The best situation is that after other European debt countries are stabilized by the EU, Greece carry out debt re-organization. While the worst situation is that Greece retreated from the Euro zone, and even dragged other countries into the water. In the two year, economy growth seems no improvement, thus the problems are accumulated, and finally, it may lead to more economic crisis and even severe.
In addition, in compare with that of 2009 and 2010, American situation is more difficult, with strong need for contradiction transferring, and the three rating agencies adding fuel to the fire may make the problem even severe.
Source:168tex.com
|
浙公網安33010602010414
