The latest report released this week from the US-based Textile Exchange outlines how global sales of organic cotton goods grew by 20% to US$5.61 billion in 2010 based on data supplied from its members, and says it now anticipates further sales growth, to an estimated US$6.2 billion market in 2011 and US $7.4 billion market in 2012.

However, it’s not clear how this growth can be sustained when the availability of organic cotton lint is already expected to decline. Earlier figures from Textile Exchange show that production has already gone into reverse, due largely to declines in organic cotton production in India. Production in 2010/11 was 210,000 metric tonnes (MTs) down from over 241,697 MT reported by Textile Exchange in 2009/10.

Overall, global cotton production for 2010 was 25.1 million tonnes.

The reported dip in 2010/11 organic cotton lint production will reflect itself in next year’s retail sales, so if the Textile Exchange is correct, there will be around a 10% growth in organic cotton product sales by value, based on a 13% drop in available raw material volumes.

If this is correct, then one interesting question is: will this additional revenue be shared throughout the whole supply chain?

Perhaps one way that this ambitious growth could be achieved is by increasing the number of products available in blends of organic. “If retailers are faced with either retail price pressure or lack of fibre supply then one way of maintaining sales growth in organic and visibility at point of sale would be to spread the organic cotton wider by reducing the blend percentage or converting some 100% organic to blend,” noted sustainable cotton expert Graham Burden from UK consultancy Sustex.

However, one impact of this could be that some of the smaller organic company’s may be squeezed as the larger retailers grow their use alongside declining production. Small pioneers may complain that large corporations are damaging their dedicated organic cotton business?

Cotton farmers

Elsewhere, the latest information gathered by Ecotextile News from India, Turkey and from delegates at the current ICAC meeting in Argentina is that organic cotton production in Turkey is stable at best or even retreating, and while there are some new initiatives for organic cotton production mooted in Belize and Colombia, this growth is not on a scale sufficient to make up for losses in India. Reports this week from ICAC also suggest that Uganda no longer grows any more organic cotton - or very little.

India’s organic cotton growers are being hampered by lack of non-GM seed, widespread side-selling of organic cotton into conventional markets due to high prices for conventional cotton; and the impact of the introduction of Tracenet in India by APEDA to ensure a higher degree of traceability.

As such, India's share of world organic cotton production is expected to decrease to 60-65% down from its previous 80%.

In addition, the expected global production of organic cotton in the 2011/12 growing season – which is now just starting to be harvested – is unclear given the situation in India. No doubt conventional cotton volumes will rise, but cotton farmers expect the volumes to stabilise at 2009 volumes, predictions which somewhat contradict an optimistic outlook from retailers and brands who sell organic cotton goods.

Nevertheless, the report is being welcomed by organic cotton organisations. “This report from Textile Exchange is a further boost to a rapidly growing certified organic textiles market ... [and] reflects what we are seeing in the UK, where Soil Association textile licensees saw growth of 35% in 2010 – reaching £12million”, noted Georgina Thomas, from Soil Association Certification, “ ... it’s a very exciting time for the sector.”