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2011-8-17
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates for 2011/12 project global cotton consumption at approximately 115.2 million bales. After August reductions in both 2010/11 and 2011/12, cotton consumption for the current season is now forecast to grow about 1 percent after a decline of nearly 4 percent in 2010/11.
The limited growth expectations are the result of the weak world economy and the recent high cotton prices that have reduced demand for cotton products and resulted in fiber substitution at mills.
Although 2011/12 global mill consumption is forecast 2 million bales below the average for the 2007-09 seasons, the shares among the leading countries have changed marginally. The top four cotton-spinning countries—China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey—are forecast to account for nearly 72 percent of global cotton consumption in 2011/12, slightly below 2010/11 but equal to the average for the 2007-09 seasons.
For China—the leading cotton spinner—the share of global consumption is forecast at 40 percent compared with 41 percent during the earlier period. Pakistan showed a similar decline, with a share decreasing from 10 percent for the 2007-09 season average to 9 percent this season.
Meanwhile, India—the second leading spinner—has seen its cotton mill use and share rise recently. In 2011/12, India’s share is forecast at 18 percent, up 2 percentage points from the recent average. Turkey, on the other hand, saw only a marginal rise in its share of world consumption to 5 percent.
Source:U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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