LUBBOCK - Early research data on the 2010/11 organic cotton growing season shows that after a decade of continuous growth, global production is expected to slow down, at least for the next two years. With the latest figures due shortly, the Textile Exchange’s first Farm & Fiber Midyear Predictions Report says that low growth is thought to be the result of a decrease in production in India for reasons to do with a scarcity of non-GM seed, and increased administration requested by the Government of India. In addition, the recent jump in commodity prices for conventional cotton, coupled with a lack of long term trade agreements, is swaying less established organic growers. Over the past five years, growth in global organic cotton fibre production has been phenomenal; increasing by over 500% from 41,314 metric tonnes (mt) in 2005/06 to 241,697 mt in 2009/10 (Farm & Fiber Report 2010). “Although the low growth scenario in India is expected to continue into 2012, other well-established organic producer countries (particularly Turkey, the former number one) are stepping up production and are expected to contribute a larger percentage of the world supply from 2011/12 onwards,” the report said. “Perhaps not enough to make up for the decline in India for the 2010/11 season but enough to keep global production from dropping too drastically.” Drivers for growth (and commitment) amongst long established organic producers include, to a point, strong commodity prices (which increased significantly in the last quarter of 2010), along with other socioeconomic, and environmental benefits on the ground. The report also points out that growth in the retail of organic cotton textiles suggests that demand for organic cotton fibre continues to be greater than supply, yet late and uncertain trade arrangements continue to present challenges to growers. “Grower commitment to producing certified organic cotton will be better achieved if brands and retailers work towards securing purchases early and connect to the product further upstream,” the report suggests. “Looking further ahead, it is anticipated that the situation in India will recover, organic production in Turkey (and other cotton growing regions) will increase, plus new organic projects will come online resulting in a return to the growth the sector has enjoyed over the past five years.” This, the report says, will only happen if trade, and markets for, organic cotton become more supportive of sustainable growth. “However we will probably not feel the full effects of this growth for at least three years.”